Dry Conditions Statewide Could Fuel High Fire Activity Across Arizona

Phoenix, AZ (3/31/2025) – Today, the Arizona Department of Forestry and Fire Management (DFFM) along with local and federal partners briefed Governor Katie Hobbs on the outlook for Arizona’s upcoming fire season. Unlike year’s past, state and regional fire behavior analysts warn this year, Arizona’s lingering warm and dry conditions, coupled with drought-stricken fuel could be the driving forces for widespread fire activity. In addition, a windier spring weather pattern and sustained warm and dry conditions could potentially lead to larger and longer duration fires sooner, particularly in southeastern Arizona, including within Cochise County. Then, as the state moves into its hot and dry summer months, analysts forecast fire activity increasing throughout Arizona, including across the high country. The minimal moisture in Flagstaff and in northeastern Arizona also puts those areas at higher risk for increased fire activity.

 

DFFM’s State Fire Management Officer John Truett said this year’s season is not based on elevation or fuel type. “More than half of the state is in extreme drought status. That combined with a lackluster winter and spring, in terms of rain and snow, have really put us at a disadvantage statewide.”

 

However, the possibility is there for areas south of the Mogollon Rim, including across the Sonoran Desert landscape, and southern Arizona to see larger intensity fires due to the fuel types and amount of fuel loading. Prior to the recent precipitation, state fire personnel recorded historically low live fuel moisture levels within brush in Yavapai County and in southeastern Arizona in Bisbee and Douglas. The abnormally low moisture levels essentially equate to dead fuel that can be highly conducive to quick ignitions and rapid-spreading fire.

 

“The recent moisture may have spared us a few weeks in terms of keeping fire activity down. However, with the possibility of a very active fire season across Arizona, it is important that residents stay vigilant of the conditions. Be prepared and be proactive when it comes to fire. Do your due diligence when working outdoors with tools that may spark. Be a good steward of our lands and recreate responsibly. It’s not a matter of if a fire starts, but when,” Chief Truett said.

 

In 2024, firefighters responded to 2,162 fires – an increase of 33% from 2023. Those 2,162 fires burned 282,507 acres of private, state, and federal lands. In 2023, 1,831 fires burned approximately 188,000 acres.

 

Click HERE for the DFFM website